Social Machinery

Internet is evolving rapidly and in different directions. Anticipating what could happen in the web future is a constant effort for those who play a role in it. 

As Marshall McLuhan famously said “We shape our tools. And then our tools shape us.”. Internet has changed many things: who we work, communicates, relate, learn, investigate, study, play, to entertain becoming an essential part of our everyday life for millions of people.

Like any technology, internet is evolving rapidly and every new step allows more people to access it, while users become are demanding more services that they would like to find on the net. Hence, companies that live in this network are always re-thinking their business and creating outstanding innovation to create more options and services.

Google is the main reference of this internet revolution and recently they have predicted eight trends that, according to them, will shape the future.

These trends are:

1. Mobile internet
2. Always connected
3. Ubiquitous network access
4. Connected cities
5. Fast speed broadband everywhere
6. Cloud computing applications
7. Online targeted advertising
8. Real time social networking

These trends pose challenges for search engine operators, as well as for advertisers, entrepreneurs, entertainment services and all those who want to participate in the network as users or as providers, and even for those companies like handset manufacturers who will need transit from manufacturing mobile phones to internet devices.

Mobile Internet rules, PC is no longer king

Experts such as Vint Cerf, the so called father of Internet and vice president of Google, believes that even do the personal computer will not die and will remain as a very important gadget; new internet devices driven by Internet development will shape the way we connected to internet.

“Historically, the Internet has been connectivity between computers and people. (…) Internet continues to develop: new devices will find their way into the net and new ways to access the web will emerge and evolve,” Cerf wrote in his article “The Next Internet”, part of Google’s corporate blog.

The possibility of Internet access from many devices such as smart phones, mid-range phones, tablets, handheld computers, netbooks, gaming consoles and even featured handsets will help to fulfill the promise of internet for everyone.

Today, only 1.800 million people, roughly 27% of world’s population have Internet access, and it is expected that most of the next 2,000 million users will come through mobile devices during the next 5 years.

In countries like Japan, Malaysia or even Indonesia this is already a reality; more people are connected via a mobile phones than computers. Moreover, mobile devices are becoming the perfect partner for those who need to be permanently connected to the Internet via email, social networks or corporate networks. In addition, latest device technology is providing a higher degree of ‘intelligence’ through which, along with Internet connectivity, is incorporating multiple sensors capable of detecting and send real-time data such as geographic location.

Another great advancement on mobile Internet is the speed: 3G connections are wide available and soon will be replaced with fourth generation technologies such as LTE, which will offer higher speeds than current fixed connections in most emerging markets.

A study by the Pew Internet Project predicts that “the mobile internet will be dominant. By 2020, most cellular networks provide a gigabit per second at least, from any place and at any time.”

This implies a challenge for manufacturers of such devices, as their business is changing dramatically from phones to a wide range of internet devices.

Network omnipresent

In the future, people not only can connect to Internet from home, businesses, offices, Internet cafes and some public places. Internet will be available everywhere, even in remote places. Future cities will be connected via a combination of different technologies including 3G, 4G,  Wi-Fi and WiMax. Also, a bigger proliferation of fiber access will grant high speed broadband access to residential and enterprise, but also help mobile infrastructure backhaul. Future citizens will be able to connect from anywhere, free or at more reasonable costs.

Not only computers and mobile devices will be leveraging on the ubiquity of Internet. Also a new generation of devices and machines, from appliances to automobiles will be connected. Analysts expected more than 50 billion devices connected by 2020. 

The classic example of the refrigerator that connects to the convenience store when there is no milk or meat, or the  car that is notified by mail when gasoline is missing or need maintenance could be true in some few more years. 

Fast speed broadband

Currently, in countries such as Hong Kong, France and Japan the average speed for broadband users is higher than 10 Mbps. Other countries like the United States are gradually reaching these speeds, while in most emerging markets only the privileged have connections above 4 Mbps and most population is still stuck in dial up connections.

But due to mobile broadband evolution this will change. The cost per MB will be reduced dramatically, making network investment more affordable than wireline case. Also, internet speed will not only be achieved through new access technology but also from the  optimization of websites, applications, multimedia technologies and other aspects apparently imperceptible but that accelerate and improve the online experience.

A good example is Content deliver networks (CDN), which cache content from companies like Apple, Google or Blackberry reducing latency and therefore improving end user experience.

Google Studies shows hat people wants sites and applications faster and more stable. This means that search engines are constantly researching to develop new technologies and continually improve those that already have, to make the web faster for everyone, including low speed connections.

The cloud computing becoming mainstream

Cloud computing took off  about two years back and last year grew significantly, with the emergence of numerous applications in the cloud-hosted Web 2.0, accessible from computers and mobile devices, and created to assist and share content. In the future it is expected that more and more applications and services will operate from the cloud, taking advantage of ubiquity, accessibility and collaboration.

Online advertising is experiencing exponential growth

Internet advertising is evolving at a rapid pace and spread like wildfire in the more developed countries. In UK, a few months ago the investment in online advertising peaked 25% of total ad spending surpassing television as the preferred channel for advertisers. In Sweden, Spain, US and other countries the trend is on and Internet is becoming bigger than traditional channels like radio or newspaper. According to PriceWaterhouseCoopers the online advertising spending is 10% of total ad investment, and by 2011 it will account for 21%.

Is it a fad? There is a growing trend supported by strong benefits of online advertising over traditional, such as the ability to do more targeted advertising, modify ad campaigns on real time, flexibly to manage costs, real time measurement and more clear marketing ROI. Overall digital advertising will help advertisers to find potential customers more easily, increase sales and optimize marketing costs.  For instance contextual advertising is the fastest growing advertising format, thanks to its effectiveness and increased return on investment, since it is not intrusive. 

Also, more and more people are spending more hours online per day compared to traditional like radio, newspapers and television, therefore advertiser will need to follow their customers. Even in emerging markets like Latin America, the trend is taking off slowly. Online advertising accounts for 5% of total advertising spending in the region, but is growing at a rate of 30% year to year.

Additionally, the formats are still evolving, and contextual text ads and banner ads are now accompanied by video, multimedia, interactive and contextual graphs.

Now the time is real-time

Today, the participation of people on the Internet is increasingly active: millions of them share photos, videos, reviews, documents and all types of content on a daily basis. Therefore, real-time search come to the rescue of the users when they want to know what is being said on the Internet at that specific moment on something of interest.

Web is about social life

Social media is so significant, that has transformed the way we use Internet for personal and business purposes. According to the Tribalization of Business study performed by Deloitte, 94% of businesses increase their investments in social networking, advertising and online communities. Currently, Facebook has over 450 million users, Twitter more than 115 million, Google Buzz is available to over 175 million Gmail users, and YouTube publish more than 24 hours of video per minute and more than 100 million videos each day. Brands will need to engage users in conversations rather that broadcasting messages; a new marketing era will emerge.